CARTHENAADVISORY

Insights by sector

Economy-wide insights

Most business decisions in Nigeria are macroeconomic decisions in disguise. A pricing plan is a bet on inflation, a capital budget is a bet on the naira, and an expansion plan is a bet on interest rates. Carthena's economic intelligence reads the data behind the headlines: what the Central Bank, the Budget Office and the National Bureau of Statistics are actually reporting, and what it means for revenue, costs and investment. We write for the decision, not the news cycle.

Insights

The Carthena Read, Issue 8. Nigerian headline inflation at 0.06 per cent month on month in September, core inflation at plus 1.11 per cent, and a 350 basis point policy rate cut on 22 September.
Fiscal & Economic Policy · 23 October 2026

September was a harvest, not a disinflation

The Carthena Read Issue 7. Nigeria is renting its stability. External reserves at an eighteen-year high of $55.25bn, interest consuming 53.7% of federal revenue, and $135m of new direct investment in the first quarter.
Fiscal & Economic Policy · 2 October 2026

Nigeria is renting its stability

The Carthena Read Issue 5, September 2026: Nigeria bought stability, it has not yet bought progress. Q2 2026 GDP growth 4.43%, 133 million still in poverty, $150bn a year needed against a ~$45bn budget.
Global Economic Intelligence · 4 September 2026

Nigeria bought stability. It has not yet bought progress.

The Carthena Read Issue 4, August 2026: Ghana is doing the work. Inflation 3.2%, a 28-year low from 54% in 2022; reserves US$12.3bn; credit rating B and rising, from default.
Global Economic Intelligence · 14 August 2026

Ghana is doing the work

The Carthena Read Issue 3 cover: Nigeria mistakes motion for progress. Three stats: $11.5B announced, $4B arrived, 47 memoranda signed at one summit in two days.
Governance & Public Sector · 25 July 2026

Nigeria's investment gap is a knowledge problem, not an execution problem

The Carthena Read Issue 2 cover: Nigeria has a productivity problem 30 years in the making. Three stats: $4B in 2025 FDI, $2B was one oil deal, 5 of 5 exits cited FX repatriation.
Global Economic Intelligence · 10 July 2026

Nigeria has a productivity problem 30 years in the making

Choropleth map of African foreign direct investment inflows in 2024, with Egypt dominating at $46.6 billion and Nigeria at $1.08 billion.
Global Economic Intelligence · 26 June 2026

Africa's 2024 FDI: the Egypt effect and Nigeria's slide

China Opens the Door. Nigeria Did Not Walk Through. - Carthena Advisory
Global Economic Intelligence · 9 May 2026

China Opens the Door. Nigeria Did Not Walk Through.

Carthena Insights: The architecture of disruption. China-Africa trade of $348bn in 2025, up 17.7%; $5.31bn lost in Nigeria's crude export earnings; a 10% US tariff on $1.2tn of annual imports.
Global Economic Intelligence · 21 March 2026

The Architecture of Disruption: How the New Global Economic War Is Reshaping Africa's Future

Carthena Insights: Nigeria's 2026 Economic Outlook and What It Means for Business. The macroeconomic forces shaping Nigeria in 2026 are neither uniformly threatening nor uniformly encouraging - they are nuanced, and the businesses that navigate them well will be those that read them accurately rather than reactively.
Economic Intelligence & Research · 15 January 2026

Nigeria's 2026 Economic Outlook and What It Means for Business

Carthena Insights: The urgent case for fiscal policy reforms in Nigeria's economic agenda. External debt $41.7bn, inflation 22.41%, infrastructure stock 25% of GDP against an 80% target.
Fiscal & Economic Policy · 10 July 2023

The Urgent Case for Fiscal Policy Reforms in Nigeria’s Economic Agenda

Carthena Insights: Discussing the 2020 Finance Bill at TVC News. Nigeria's Finance Bill 2020 contained provisions with far-reaching implications for how businesses are taxed, how capital is allocated, and how the government funds its priorities.
Fiscal & Economic Policy · 5 December 2020

Discussing the 2020 Finance Bill at TVC News

Carthena Insights: What Nigeria’s Rising Debt Profile Means for Growth and Stability. Nigeria's debt-to-GDP ratio is not yet at crisis levels - but the trajectory, the composition, and the debt service burden are all moving in directions that demand serious policy attention.
Fiscal & Economic Policy · 12 November 2020

What Nigeria’s Rising Debt Profile Means for Growth and Stability

Carthena Insights: Why Nigeria needs a strong national identity to achieve economic progress. 65% below the poverty line, 63% aged 0 to 24, 250+ ethnic groups.
Fiscal & Economic Policy · 23 January 2020

Why Nigeria Needs a Strong National Identity to Achieve Economic Progress

Carthena Advisory cover: Nigeria does not have a planning problem, it has a strategy problem.
Strategy & Planning · 6 June 2026

Nigeria does not have a planning problem. It has a strategy problem.

Carthena Insights: Diaspora remittances, a vital engine for Nigeria's growth. $25.08bn remitted in 2019; about 6% of GDP in 2018; an estimated 17 million Nigerians abroad.
Economic Intelligence & Research · 17 May 2023

Diaspora Remittances: A Vital Engine for Nigeria’s Economic Growth

Carthena Insights: Fuel subsidy removal in Nigeria, what every citizen should know. ₦1.3tn spent on fuel subsidy in 2020; ₦3tn in 2022, more than double.
Fiscal & Economic Policy · 8 May 2023

Fuel Subsidy Removal in Nigeria: What Every Citizen Should Know

Carthena Insights: How Strong Institutions Can Drive Nigeria’s Economic Recovery. Economic recovery in Nigeria will not be delivered by any single policy intervention or administration.
Governance & Public Sector · 8 January 2020

How Strong Institutions Can Drive Nigeria’s Economic Recovery

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