Economic intelligence on Nigeria and Africa

Economic intelligence that informs decisions

Most organisations in Nigeria are not short of economic news. They are short of a view on what it means for their own prices, costs, funding and plans. Exchange rates, interest rates, fuel and food prices and fiscal policy move faster here than in most markets, and a decision made on last quarter's assumptions can be wrong before it is implemented. Carthena Advisory turns economic developments into specific implications for a business, a portfolio or a public institution, and into the decisions those implications call for.

Macroeconomic outlooks

We publish and brief on the outlook for growth, inflation, the naira, interest rates and the fiscal position, with the drivers behind each and the signals that would change the view. For clients, the outlook is built around the variables that matter to their own economics: an importer's exchange rate exposure, a manufacturer's input costs, a lender's credit risk or an investor's return assumptions.

Policy and regulatory analysis

Policy shapes markets in Nigeria more directly than in most economies. We analyse monetary, fiscal, trade and sector policy as it is announced and as it is applied, which are often not the same thing, and set out who gains, who loses and what a client should do about it.

Sector research

We research the sectors our clients operate in or are considering: market size and growth, the structure of competition, price and cost trends, regulation and the companies shaping each market. The research draws on published data and on fieldwork, so it reflects how the sector actually behaves, including the parts the official statistics miss.

Scenario planning

Where the outlook is genuinely uncertain, a single forecast is false comfort. We build a small number of scenarios, quantify what each would mean for revenue, costs and cash, and identify the early signals that show which is unfolding. Leadership teams then agree in advance what they will do if each scenario arrives, rather than debating it when it does.

Board and leadership briefings

We brief boards, executive committees and investment committees on the economic environment ahead of budget cycles, strategy sessions and major decisions, and facilitate the discussion of what it means for their plans. Many clients use an annual market outlook session to anchor the year's planning, then a shorter update when conditions shift. The briefing often becomes the fact base for a strategic plan or a market entry decision.

Economic intelligence for investors

Investors entering or expanding in Nigeria need a view of the economy that a desk in another country cannot give them: how policy is actually applied, how the exchange rate affects returns, and which sectors are growing in fact rather than on paper. We brief investors and their committees on the macroeconomic and policy risks behind a specific investment, and on how those risks can be priced or managed.

Published research

Carthena publishes its economic analysis in the open:

• The Carthena Read, a fortnightly analysis of the Nigerian and West African economy;
• The Carthena Position, a biannual flagship that takes one question facing the country and sets out what the evidence supports, with every figure sourced and the full dataset available;
• Insights, including the annual Nigeria economic outlook.

How an engagement runs

1. Define the decision. Agree the decisions the intelligence must inform and the variables that drive them.
2. Build the view. Data, policy analysis and fieldwork, brought together into an outlook and scenarios.
3. Brief. A written briefing and a facilitated session with the board or leadership team.
4. Update. Regular or event-driven updates as conditions change.

Why Carthena

Carthena Advisory has completed more than 70 projects in 12 sectors, and is led by a Fellow Chartered Accountant who has advised boards across financial services, FMCG, infrastructure and aviation. Our economic work is tied to the commercial and financial work we do for clients, so every outlook ends in implications for prices, costs, capital and plans rather than in commentary.