Real estate advisory

Real estate advisory for developers and investors in Nigeria

Real estate in Nigeria rarely fails for lack of demand in the abstract. Nigeria's housing deficit runs to tens of millions of units by most estimates. Projects fail because the product, the price and the payment terms do not match the buyers who can actually pay, because construction costs move faster than sales, or because financing assumptions do not survive a change in interest rates. Carthena Advisory helps developers, investors and landowners test those assumptions before capital is committed, and shape the project so that it sells.

Market studies

We research the market a project will sell into: who the buyers or tenants are, what they can afford, what they are buying today and from whom, how quickly comparable schemes sell or let, and what the pipeline of competing supply looks like. The study draws on published data, on agents and developers active in the area, and on primary research with prospective buyers.

Feasibility studies

A real estate feasibility study tests whether a development is commercially and financially viable. We combine the market study with construction and development costs, phasing, sales or rental income, financing and exit, and model the returns under realistic scenarios for prices, costs, interest rates and sales speed. The result is a decision a board, a lender or a joint venture partner can rely on. The method follows the same standard as our feasibility studies in other sectors.

Product mix and pricing

The right product is the one the market will absorb at a price that delivers the return. We recommend the mix of unit types and sizes, the specification, the pricing by unit and phase, and the payment plans that widen the pool of buyers without weakening cash flow.

Go-to-market and sales strategy

A good project can still sell slowly. We design the go-to-market plan: the target segments, including diaspora buyers, the positioning against competing schemes, the sales channels and agent arrangements, the launch sequence and the sales targets by phase. The approach draws on our wider market entry and go-to-market practice.

Financing and lender readiness

Most developments depend on debt, off-plan sales or both, and lenders test a scheme harder than its sponsors do. We prepare the market evidence, financial model and sensitivity analysis a bank, a development finance institution or an equity partner expects, and help sponsors structure funding so that construction is not left waiting on sales.

Signs a project needs a feasibility review

• Sales or lettings are slower than the plan assumed.
• Construction costs have risen since the budget was set.
• The unit mix was chosen before the buyers were researched.
• A lender or partner has asked for independent evidence.
• The land is held, but the best use of it is still open.

Land, partnerships and public-private schemes

Many projects begin with land and a partner rather than a plan. We assess the best use of a site, structure joint ventures between landowners, developers and investors, and advise on public-private partnerships, including student and staff accommodation.

How an engagement runs

1. Frame the decision. The site, the options and the questions the investment decision depends on.
2. Research the market. Desk research, agents, developers and prospective buyers.
3. Model the project. Costs, revenue, phasing, financing and returns under realistic scenarios.
4. Shape and launch. Product mix, pricing, payment plans and the go-to-market plan.

Why Carthena

Carthena Advisory has completed more than 70 projects in 12 sectors, with offices in Lagos and London. Our real estate work combines economic intelligence on interest rates, construction costs and household incomes with primary research into buyers, so projects are shaped by the market that exists rather than the one a brochure assumes.